妖鎳？ Crazy Nickel? Just some thoughts

There are some background in the Nickel story: 1. There are mainly 2 kinds of nickel deposits in the world: laterite vs sulphide; 2. Class 1 nickel is traded in LME; 3. Class 1 nickel is mostly produced from sulphide deposits; 4. Batteries use class 1 nickel; 5. Russia nickel mines are mostly sulphide deposits; 6. Russia nickel producer Norilsk produce about 166k MT (metric ton) nickel p.a.; 7. Tsingshan's nickel mine in Indonesia is laterite deposits and mainly produce Nickel alloy for stainless steel production, so called class 2. Some estimates their nickel equivalent production is about 300,000 MT; 8. Glencore nickel production 121k MT p.a.; 9. HKEX owns LME; Surely, the short squeeze and the rise of price of nickel are crazy. But, consider the magnitude of the short contract: 200k MT(metric ton) @USD20k/MT short (reported in some Chinese media), compare to a global annual production of about 2 - 2.5 million MT, and around 2/3 of the annual production of Tsingshan, on a short contract which Tsingshan cannot deliver, at the time when the world second largest class 1 nickel producer risk under sanction, and the nickel price increased over the contract deposit and still NOT liquidating the contract? Which is crazier? Reported to be: the counterpart (rumour to be Glencore) of the contract is forcing Tsingshan on a physical settlement rather than cash settlement. Either the short contract size were much bigger and Tsingshan was trying to close by buying spot and pushed the price higher. OR, there are more player bidding the nickel price higher and cornering Tsingshan, OR BOTH. A "hedge" without risk management is gamble. (Please do your own DD on numbers or background)